Twitterstream analysis: a data-mining form of prediction markets

Waggener Edstrom Worldwide is using twitter to predict the near-term future outcomes. This is effectively a 'data-mining' form of prediction markets, something we may expect to see much, much more of in short-term prediction in the years to come.

According to techflash.com (Seattle) the firm last week accurately predicted The Hurt Locker would win Best Picture over Avatar at the 2010 Academy Awards, "based on findings gleaned from its "twendz pro" service, which analyzes conversations and trends on Twitter for patterns of influence and other key indicators.

"Among other things, the pre- Oscar analysis identified film critic Roger Ebert as a key influencer in the discussion, and noted that tweets in favor of Avatar were focused on its budget and sales, while supporters of Hurt Locker focused more on the content and quality of the film. In addition, the analysis found, Hurt Locker supporters averaged twice as many followers as supporters of Avatar did."