The iPhone and the future

I picked up this little iPhone of the Future riff musing on what the iPhone (phone, Blackberry's or PDAs in general) can do or will be able to do soon. With some editing...

1. Phone as a hotel or car key. Your phone can unlock your hotel door. Or car door. A firm known as OpenWays is currently working on the solution, which would allow you to skip the check-in desk and walk directly to your hotel room, having made the reservations in advance. For more see Tnooz.com

2. Advanced social networking. Walk into a restaurant and look at all of your friends who have been there and read the reviews they've written. ReadWriteWeb suggests that a more realistic form of social networking could take place, allowing you to integrate social networks with your life away from the keyboard.

3. Personalized travel guides. Another interesting idea from ReadWriteWeb is the idea of a personalized travel guide. Many people take virtual tours when they go to museums - so why not download an App that offers a virtual tour of Venice? Plug in the headphones and allow the GPS to show your App where you are in Venice, guiding you to the local restaurants and historic sites while offering recommendations for hotels and other tourist-friendly activities.

4. Phone projection for video. If the iPhone came with a projector, all you would need is a screen to carry movies with you.

Twitterstream analysis: a data-mining form of prediction markets

Waggener Edstrom Worldwide is using twitter to predict the near-term future outcomes. This is effectively a 'data-mining' form of prediction markets, something we may expect to see much, much more of in short-term prediction in the years to come.

According to techflash.com (Seattle) the firm last week accurately predicted The Hurt Locker would win Best Picture over Avatar at the 2010 Academy Awards, "based on findings gleaned from its "twendz pro" service, which analyzes conversations and trends on Twitter for patterns of influence and other key indicators.

"Among other things, the pre- Oscar analysis identified film critic Roger Ebert as a key influencer in the discussion, and noted that tweets in favor of Avatar were focused on its budget and sales, while supporters of Hurt Locker focused more on the content and quality of the film. In addition, the analysis found, Hurt Locker supporters averaged twice as many followers as supporters of Avatar did."

Ontario looks to its future (Ontario 2020)

Alway's a good thing when a city or region is prepared to look ahead and manage proactively. The second day of a 2-day Ontario 2020 conference is under way. More at www.ontario2020conference.ca

"This conference is a great opportunity to rise above the latest crises, visualize some of our possible futures, and imagine what we can do today to build the Ontario we want tomorrow," said Warren (Smokey) Thomas, president of the Ontario Public Service Employees Union in his opening address.

Roger Martin, Dean of the Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, spoke on: "Who killed Canada's education advantage? Thomas Homer-Dixon, Chair of Global Systems at the Balsillie School of International Affairs, University of Waterloo, discussed "Building resilience and strategies for coping with an uncertain future." Mary Robinson former president of Ireland and current Chair of The Ethical Globalization Initiative, will spoke on "prosperity and compassion."

The two-day conference will build and discuss possible scenarios of the future in four key areas: the economy, community, health care, and education. Ontario 2020 is chaired by noted Canadian journalist Wendy Mesley.

The unreadable stock market, proxy for the whole dimly readable future

I was quite taken with this little analysis of what doesn't work in making money in the stock market by 'The Stock Surfer.' The problem is obviously the same problem as predicting the future in general: technical analysis doesn't work, expert analysis is unreliable... Not to say there is no hope. Just that a lot of what is out there as 'knowledge' is an unsound basis if not downright dangerous to make decisions on. (How to judge foresight quality is a theme of Future Savvy.)

 

See http://thestocksurfer.blogspot.com/2010/03/crash-scenarios-and-questioning.html

Excerpt: "I used to eat (articles) up but I'm now much more skeptical of any analysis, no matter how well reasoned.  The unfortunate reality is that most of the reading I've done has provided me with very little tangible result.  The market seems more and more like an irrational gamble.  I'm not trying to be a downer here, I'm just trying to think clearly about how to manage money responsibly.  Let's review the ways:

"Buy and Hold: Doesn't work.  Based on the myth that markets go up over "long" periods.  The data is skewed by a bubble in the 90s we're still paying for.  The S&P 500 is right where it was in April of 1998, and is down by 1/3, yes 30%, from it's high.  I don't know anyone who has retired thanks to the market.

"Technical Analysis: I've learned a dozen different systems, none of which are very reliable.

"Fundamental Analysis: Doesn't work.  Based on the myth that a stock is a rational representation of a business.  Involves predicting the future based on past results and growth rates.

 

"Expert Analysis: They all disagree at times, and when they agree it's even worse, because they are wrong more often than not.  It seems to me that "market experts" make a living by selling products (financial advice or new investing tools / vehicles) to people.  Why don't they just make a living through trading?  Because they can't do it, unless they use someone else's money to magnify returns or have an inside edge."

The British Pound to collapse, or perhaps not

Billionaire financier Jim Rogers (left, Getty pics) has now denied that he predicted that the British Pound could completely collapse within weeks. The statement in The Daily Bell sent shockwaves throughout the global economy. Still concern over the pound rumbles and 1992 doesn't seem like such a long way away.
In the article Rogers, once a partner of George Soros, says: "Other currencies aren't strong and the Euro has real problems, with cracks much wider than Greece beginning to show. But it's the Pound that's most vulnerable. In real terms, it's already devalued against virtually every currency barring the Zimbabwean dollar and it's especially exposed over the weeks running up to the UK election. In a basket of currencies, the Pound is potentially a basket case. And that will put Britain in an extremely bad position for the shakedown. The last few months have seen a 'false bounce', shorn up by massive short-term injections of government underwriting."