Friday, December 18, 2009

Better decisions in uncertain times - McKinsey Quarterly

McKinsey Quarterly has an article “Dynamic management: Better decisions in uncertain times” (signup required) which tackles the holy grail, the veritable raison d'etre of foresight work: how to make better decisions under conditions of uncertainty.

Highlights:
  • Learning by doing – Use techniques such as scenario planning, or 'stage-gating' to stoke new think about the future.
  • Create workshop-based adult-learning techniques – Manage ambiguity and complexity by developing case studies to surface and debate alternative courses of actions.
  • Change how decisions are made – Redesign decision making processes to enable rapid surfacing and formal designation of issues considered critical.
  • Rethinking corporate budgeting processes – to make it more flexible and specifically allow for range of outcomes.
The tagline wisdom: 'Companies can’t predict the future, but they can build organizations that will survive and flourish under just about any possible future.'
That's the holy grail. Easier said than done, but these practices and techniques are the basis, and certainly 'a million percent' better than calculating the future on an Excel spreadsheet, using a moving average, if you know what I mean.

Tablet magazine. Wow today, here tomorrow

Nice little video mockup here on evolving capabilities of tablet media, pointing to the future of media consumption in the magazine world... think beyond sports to fashion and music and travel, etc. It's all going this way. (But content is still king)

The future of public libraries

The State Library of New South Wales have a scenario study out called 'Bookend Scenarios' that is a remarkable piece of work (done in association with the Neville Freeman Association.) As scenario write-ups go, I have not seen better. It looks back to what has brought us to the present, and looks forward in coherent interesting ways, backed up by plausible timelines and creative thinking. It primarily oriented to Australian concerns, but in a field like this the issues are remarkably similar if not identical to libraries the world over. This is the key matrix:



But the devils is in the details which are well thought through. The full study report is available for download at: http://www.sl.nsw.gov.au/services/public_libraries/publications/docs/bookendsscenarios.pdf

Thursday, December 3, 2009

A recent BBC story offers musing on the same-old same-old double-whammy of too many immigrants to manage socially, yet not enough to pay into welfare for expanding number of elderly. But it has useful chart of low-high office of national statistics population pyramid projections for the UK 2033.



The author offers a 'government health warning' on these projections: "these are projections, not forecasts, and simply extrapolate from data that is probably already changing." If only all projections carried that label! The obvious thing already knocking these numbers into a cocked hat is great strides in age-delaying medicine.

Five scenarios for Pakistan

One of the smarter futurists around is Sohail Inayatullah, Professor, Tamkang University, University of the Sunshine Coast, and Prout College. He distinguishes himself by not getting more excited than necessary about technology, and also by considering 'deep structures, myths, and archetypes' in the situations he analyses. Anyway, I picked up this article on five scenarios for Pakistan. They are clearly  value-laden (illuminating obviously low, middle, and high roads) reminiscent of the Mont Fleur scenarios for South Africa at its inflection point in the 1990s. But they do frame the options rather well, as follows:

1. The pendulum continues forever. This would mean that after this particular civilian cycle, there will be another military coup in 7-10 years. Politicians will have some luck in ridding Pakistan of extremist fundamentalists, but old scores between the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League or between the PPP and the military will still need to be settled. Issues of justice and revenge will continue and just as Pakistan's economy is about to take off, another crisis will set in. Citizens will rally but then when they see no real change will become despondent. “Nothing is possible here,” or a similar catch-phrase will be the inner story. Globalization will not go away but the politics would swing between growth and equity.

2. Collapse – this is the most feared scenario for all, particularly in the West. Civil war in Pakistan (the provinces going their own way), the inability to stop jihadism, Al Qa'ida or their friends finding some nukes, not to mention the global challenges of climate change, all lead to a slow decline destined for collapse. And if the challenge from the Pakistani and Afghani Taliban is resolved, the frontline will switch to half-century old war in. Capital flies away, economic development slows down and Pakistan becomes a nation of competing tribes. Women in this future are particularly vulnerable as the battle between religious and secularists throughout the Islamic (Arab influenced world) is fought over the “body” of the female. Is she a person unto herself or does the strong male (feudal lord, ruler, mullah) need to protect and control. In the collapse, chaos would reign. Over time, and perhaps even quite quickly, a strong military leader is likely to rise (the Napoleon scenario), but can the great leader unite all the tribes (the challenge facing Afghanistan today)?

3. Joining Chindia. With India likely to move into the ranks of the G-8 by 2020, gaining a permanent UN Security Council Position, Pakistan's only hope is to link in every possible way with India and China – or Chindia. Certainly Pakistan will favor the China part of the amazing rise, but in any case, in this future, economic growth is far more important than ideological struggles. To move in this direction, the Singapore or Malaysian model may be adopted. This model is characterized by a clear vision of the future, transparency; break up of the feudal system, limited democracy (One party rule) and creatively finding a niche role in the global economy, and then using that to springboard to becoming a global player. However, the India example shows that economic rise is possible outside the East Asian model. In any case, this future is hopeful but requires investment in infrastructure and a favoring of globalized capitalism. Instead of lamenting the colonial past, in this Chindia future, Pakistan creates its own transnational corporations. Politics moves from focusing on old wrongs (Kashmir, for example) to desired futures. Instead of Chindia, Chindistan is created.

4. The fourth scenario is the Great Game. Pakistan remains a pawn, moved around for the strategic and ideological purposes of the great powers. Whether in proxy wars against the Russians or against 9/11 jihadis or whoever may be next, Pakistan’s capacity to influence its future is low or non-existent. At best, it can only rent out its military, or territory, for others’ battles. In this future (as in the current present), the rental receipts do not lead to even development –they merely enrich those getting the rent, generally the military. The national game becomes not how to transform the great game but how to get a piece of the action, legitimately or illegitimately. Those not part of the money game sing songs of grand conspiracies. These songs take away agency. While Pakistan has a dependency relationship with the rest of the world, citizens have a dependency – child/adult – relationship with the government, expecting it to solve each and every problem, without taking responsibility for their own actions and blaming the government when it fails. At the collective level, Pakistan remains rudderless, evoking the words of the founder, but unable to follow through with action.

5. A wiser South-Asian confederation. The challenges Pakistan faces are similar to what other countries in the region face – religious extremism, climate change, poverty, corruption, deep inequity, used futures and less than helpful archetypes – the only way forward is towards an EU model of slow but inevitable integration. While this may seem too positive and far away, it is not impossible. Each country needs the help of others to solve their problems. None can go it alone, and each can learn from the Other. This requires learning, peace and mediation skills in all schools; moving toward the sustainability development agenda; developing agreements in security, water, and energy to begin with; and a focus on the desired future and not on past injustices. Gender equity and systemic and deep cultural levels is foundational for this future. This future also requires an archetype that is neither the male general nor feudal lord nor the rebellious teenager, but the wise person, perhaps the Globo sapiens. Fortunately, the south Asian tradition is steeped with wisdom. Can this imagination be drawn on to create a different future? Already in Pakistan, there are hundreds of groups and thousands of individuals working on this vision. What is needed is systemic support for this future, and a move away from focusing on past injustices.

Moreover, can the mullah who is focused on religion for tribal power become the wise sage, the Sufi or pir focused on transformative power? Can other roles as well be transformed: can the consumer become the producer, the client the citizen, the child the adult? And perhaps, as in East Asia, can new myths be created through grounded realities such as the economic miracle, which has now created new stories of social capacity and new identities. Pakistan was on the verge of this future in the early 1960s, it is possible to rediscover this pathway.