Ontario looks to its future (Ontario 2020)

Alway's a good thing when a city or region is prepared to look ahead and manage proactively. The second day of a 2-day Ontario 2020 conference is under way. More at www.ontario2020conference.ca

"This conference is a great opportunity to rise above the latest crises, visualize some of our possible futures, and imagine what we can do today to build the Ontario we want tomorrow," said Warren (Smokey) Thomas, president of the Ontario Public Service Employees Union in his opening address.

Roger Martin, Dean of the Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, spoke on: "Who killed Canada's education advantage? Thomas Homer-Dixon, Chair of Global Systems at the Balsillie School of International Affairs, University of Waterloo, discussed "Building resilience and strategies for coping with an uncertain future." Mary Robinson former president of Ireland and current Chair of The Ethical Globalization Initiative, will spoke on "prosperity and compassion."

The two-day conference will build and discuss possible scenarios of the future in four key areas: the economy, community, health care, and education. Ontario 2020 is chaired by noted Canadian journalist Wendy Mesley.

The unreadable stock market, proxy for the whole dimly readable future

I was quite taken with this little analysis of what doesn't work in making money in the stock market by 'The Stock Surfer.' The problem is obviously the same problem as predicting the future in general: technical analysis doesn't work, expert analysis is unreliable... Not to say there is no hope. Just that a lot of what is out there as 'knowledge' is an unsound basis if not downright dangerous to make decisions on. (How to judge foresight quality is a theme of Future Savvy.)

 

See http://thestocksurfer.blogspot.com/2010/03/crash-scenarios-and-questioning.html

Excerpt: "I used to eat (articles) up but I'm now much more skeptical of any analysis, no matter how well reasoned.  The unfortunate reality is that most of the reading I've done has provided me with very little tangible result.  The market seems more and more like an irrational gamble.  I'm not trying to be a downer here, I'm just trying to think clearly about how to manage money responsibly.  Let's review the ways:

"Buy and Hold: Doesn't work.  Based on the myth that markets go up over "long" periods.  The data is skewed by a bubble in the 90s we're still paying for.  The S&P 500 is right where it was in April of 1998, and is down by 1/3, yes 30%, from it's high.  I don't know anyone who has retired thanks to the market.

"Technical Analysis: I've learned a dozen different systems, none of which are very reliable.

"Fundamental Analysis: Doesn't work.  Based on the myth that a stock is a rational representation of a business.  Involves predicting the future based on past results and growth rates.

 

"Expert Analysis: They all disagree at times, and when they agree it's even worse, because they are wrong more often than not.  It seems to me that "market experts" make a living by selling products (financial advice or new investing tools / vehicles) to people.  Why don't they just make a living through trading?  Because they can't do it, unless they use someone else's money to magnify returns or have an inside edge."

Gurus forecast future of print media

There's a reason why 'guru forecasting' is known as the worst method in foresight work. It's called 'groupthink' and you can see it for yourself in this CNN Money/ Fortune piece "10 sages read the future of print." The future? The 'tablet' takes over, but nobody knows what the business model is going to be. And I need a guru to tell me that?

The just-in-time worker and the push-back

Business Week this week leads with a feature 'The Disposable Worker,'  saying that 26% of the US workforce has 'non-standard' (part, flexi, multiple) employment and the forecast for the next 5-10 years is more of the same. "Right up to the C-suite, more jobs will be freelance and temporary... As Kelly Services CEO Carl Camden puts it: 'We're all temps now.'"

BW also quotes Peter Cappelli, director of the Center for Human Resources at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, as saying the brutal recession has prompted more companies to create just-in-time labor forces that can be turned on and off like a spigot. "'Employers are trying to get rid of all fixed costs,' Cappelli says. 'First they did it with employment benefits. Now they're doing it with the jobs themselves. Everything is variable.' That means companies hold all the power, and 'all the risks are pushed on to employees.'"

It's a fairly old forecast in labor circles that work is moving from full-time jobs towards a project-based, just-in-time agglomeration of skills. This can even sound quite attractive: think of the movie industry. When a movie goes ahead, a whole raft of employees, from actors to sound engineers to caterers to editors are brought in as needed and paid well. They meanwhile have the flexibility to work on other projects too.

But, predictably, people who are not celebrities, or super-skilled, or young-and-free hate this form of working because of its insecurity. Those who want to know where their next paycheck is coming from, are the overwhelming majority, and they will push back against this future heavily. They are therefore  the immense brakes on this brave new world of work forecast.

In recessionary times employees have little power. But when things turn up, the power balance in the labor market will shift and employers will have to start offering real jobs and benefit to workers they don't want to lose to competitors who are offering them.

The future of public libraries

The State Library of New South Wales have a scenario study out called 'Bookend Scenarios' that is a remarkable piece of work (done in association with the Neville Freeman Association.) As scenario write-ups go, I have not seen better. It looks back to what has brought us to the present, and looks forward in coherent interesting ways, backed up by plausible timelines and creative thinking. It primarily oriented to Australian concerns, but in a field like this the issues are remarkably similar if not identical to libraries the world over. This is the key matrix:

But the devils is in the details which are well thought through. The full study report is available for download at: http://www.sl.nsw.gov.au/services/public_libraries/publications/docs/bookendsscenarios.pdf

Corporate foresight for banking and for business in general

In a competitive market dominated and shaped by changing environments and trends, knowing what the future holds would be handy, if we could have that knowledge. We can't of course, but there are things we can do. In this Bernet & Partner video shown on Private Banking Innovation, Axel Liebetrau, a consultant affiliated with the German ‘Zukunftsinstitut,’ offers a quick but solid overview of the why's, wherefores, and limits of foresight work in companies. He makes a particular pitch for 'creativity' in the banking industry, implying a solid view of the future should be the basis of innovation across product, service, workforce or technology-adoption models.