Atoms are the new bits - nanotechnology manufacturing and industry consequences

Atoms are the New Bits - the New Industrial Revolution, by Chris Anderson, 01 February 2010. (Extract from Wired shared by Jamie Saunders, Futuresedge.)

"...Here's the history of two decades in one sentence: if the past ten years have been about discovering post-institutional social models on the web, then the next ten years will be about applying them to the real world.

"This story is about the next ten years.

"The tools of factory production, from electronics assembly to 3D printing, are now available to individuals in batches as small as a single unit. Anybody with an idea and a little expertise can set assembly lines in China into motion with nothing more than some keystrokes on their laptop. A few days later, a prototype will be at their door and, once it all checks out, they can push a few more buttons and be in full production, making hundreds, thousands, or more. They can become a virtual micro-factory, able to design and sell goods without any infrastructure or even inventory; products can be assembled and drop-shipped by contractors who serve hundreds of such customers simultaneously.

"...Hardware is becoming much more like software," as MIT professor Eric von Hippel puts it. That's not just because there's so much software in hardware these days, with products becoming little more than intellectual property wrapped in commodity materials, whether it's the code that drives the off-the-shelf chips in gadgets or the 3D design files that drive manufacturing. It's also because of the availability of common platforms, easy-to-use tools, web-based collaboration and internet distribution.

"We've seen this picture before: it's what happens just before monolithic industries fragment in the face of countless small entrants, from the music industry to newspapers. Lower the barriers to entry and the crowd pours in.

"The academic way to put this is that global supply chains have become scale-free, able to serve the small as well as the large, the garage inventor and Sony. This change is driven by two forces. First, the explosion in cheap and powerful prototyping tools, which have become easier to use by non-engineers. And second, the economic crisis has triggered an extraordinary shift in the business practices of (mostly) Chinese factories, which have become increasingly flexible, web-centric and open to custom work (where the volumes are lower but the margins higher)...

"In short, atoms are the new bits."

Foresight meets Decision Support (i.e. where it should always be)

The Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA) recently developed a white paper to present and evaluate Decision Support Planning Methods (DSPMs) to water utilities interested in incorporating climate change into their planning now.  The paper, 'Incorporating Climate Change Uncertainties into Water Planning' is available at http://www.wucaonline.org.

As reported on the Malcolm Pirnie site Ed Means says: "DSPMs consider multiple future conditions to incorporate more and greater uncertainties into the planning process and can be useful not only in planning for climatic uncertainty, but also in planning for uncertainty about regulatory, environmental, economic, social, and other variables affecting water utilities... There are several basic approaches that can be used:

Classic Decision Analysis
Classic decision analysis is a probability-based DSPM that systematically catalogues information and mathematically evaluates and ranks alternatives against multiple, potentially conflicting, decision objectives. Classic decision analysis illustrates the process with a decision tree or influence diagram, and handles uncertainty through the use of probabilities.

Traditional Scenario Planning
Traditional scenario planning is a scenario-based DSPM with the main objective of developing a plan that best prepares the water utility for a plausible range of uncertain circumstances. Scenarios are developed by identifying critical uncertainties and driving forces (e.g., climate, water quantity, water quality, demand, social and regulatory change, technology, economics) to create a range of future conditions that go beyond extrapolation of current trends and represent surprising but plausible conditions.

Robust Decision Making
Robust decision making is a framework that combines features of both classic decision analysis and traditional scenario planning, providing a systematic way of developing a water management strategy to best adapt to a wide range of plausible future conditions. It involves generating multiple future hydrologic/demand scenarios as well as developing multiple water resources strategies and optimizing the strategies using statistical tools.

Real Options
Real options is a method to help water managers identify water supply strategies that adjust over time and balance risks using traditional discounted cash flow approaches. Flexible investment strategies are sought that can be
risk-adjusted with time and deferred into the future. Uncertainties in real options are handled through the use of probabilities. Results are flexible in that they may incorporate delaying and phasing of facility projects.

Portfolio Planning
Portfolio planning is used in the financial world to select a portfolio containing a mix of assets or strategies that minimize financial exposure due to future market scenarios. Uncertainty is handled through the use of probabilities and Monte Carlo simulations, and minimized through hedging. Few applications in the water industry exist for this DSPM.

Gurus forecast future of print media

There's a reason why 'guru forecasting' is known as the worst method in foresight work. It's called 'groupthink' and you can see it for yourself in this CNN Money/ Fortune piece "10 sages read the future of print." The future? The 'tablet' takes over, but nobody knows what the business model is going to be. And I need a guru to tell me that?

The Road to Long Finance

The Long Finance, part of the Long Now Foundation, had an 'Enduring Value' Conference in London recently, including celebrity presenters Brian Eno, Stewart Brand and Alexander Rose. More on the Long Now/ Long Finance here.

One of the speakers and proponents of Long Finance, Professor Michael Mainell has made his book, The Road To Long Finance: A Systems View Of The Credit Scrunch, available for free download.

The future of finance is also the topic of 'Beyond the Financial Crisis' scenarios created by Angela Wilkinson at Oxford University's Institute for Science, Innovation and Society. The scenarios compare a future 'Growth' mode with a future 'Health' mode. They are available for free download.

Nanotechnologies and Food

Futurist and friend Dan Shostak of Strategic Affairs Forecasting (strategicaffairs.net) in Washington DC forwarded me this comprehensive Nanotechnologies and Food report, done by the House of Lords Science and Technology Committee. As to be expected, it focuses on the public policy and regulatory angles, a welcome change from the pure technology discussions that pertain in this field, as if there were no adoption issues.

The report is in two volumes, with the second volume dedicated to the statements and presentations made to the committee.

Key take-aways

1. Nanotechnology is already entering the food supply. While many parts of food regulation will easily apply to these developments, nanotechnology also raises unique issues which require deliberation by the public and safety agencies.

2. Nanotechnology will be a series issue in the coming years. Governments and corporations should expect large scale and global campaigns against the use of nanotechnology.